OpenRate — filing-derived competitive intelligence
What competitors asked for, what they were granted, what they disclosed, and what their loss ratios did next — on free public data, open source. Not a comparative rater: no premium quotes, no shopping data. Read-only; refreshed by an offline pipeline.
Disclaimer — please read before relying on anything on this page. This is a research/educational dashboard built for the CAS 2026 Ratemaking paper.
- No warranty. All data and calculations are provided "as is," without warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Every figure carries an as-of date and reflects public data that lags real experience.
- Not actuarial advice. Nothing here is an actuarial work product, opinion, or rate indication, and it is not a substitute for the professional judgment of a qualified actuary working under the applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs). Several Werner & Modlin steps are deliberately not implemented.
- Not legal advice.
- Antitrust / information-sharing caution. This tool aggregates only rate figures that carriers have already filed or published publicly; it is a transparency aid, not a mechanism for competitor coordination or price signaling, and must be used consistently with antitrust and unfair-trade-practices law.
- Data-source terms respected. Public sources (CA CDI public notices, NAIC reports, SEC EDGAR, FRED, CAS Schedule P) are used per their public terms; SERFF Filing Access is never scraped; no personal or confidential data is stored.
- Your responsibility. Although this tool was built with care to respect all applicable legalities, it is the user's sole responsibility to ensure that any use complies with all applicable state, federal, and other laws and regulations, including insurance rating and filing laws.
- Open source under MPL-2.0 for full auditability and reproducibility.
What this is
An open-source, filing-derived competitive intelligence view for P&C pricing, built entirely on free public sources: what each carrier asked for, what the regulator granted, what the filing disclosed about how it got there — and, uniquely, what that carrier's loss ratio did afterwards.
Every figure regenerates from a script over checksummed public data. Released under MPL-2.0.
What it is not
This is not a comparative rater, and saying so plainly matters more than a feature list:
| It does not | Why |
|---|---|
| Price a given risk profile | That needs a competitor's full rating algorithm — base rates and every table. Vendors hand-build and QA these across tens of thousands of rate sets; public filings rarely contain the whole manual. |
| Build market baskets from quotes | Needs observed quote and shopping behaviour from an agency or aggregator panel. No public source replaces it. |
| Replicate insurance credit scores | Proprietary models. |
| Run disruption analysis on your book | Needs your own policy file, which only you have. |
What no vendor sells, and this does
The join from a filing to that writer's subsequently realized loss ratio, at group-state-line-year grain — via the fact that California's "Grp #" is the NAIC group code. That gives the indicated → approved → realized triangle: what a carrier said it needed, what it got, and what then developed.
What is behind the numbers
| Approved rate actions | CA CDI Approval-and-Closed lists — the disposition, never the notice-time ask |
| Realized loss ratios | NAIC Market Share Reports (free annual PDFs), 2019–2024 — direct loss ratio, not combined |
| Disclosed selections and factor tables | The filings themselves, read by an open-weights model on a laptop at no per-filing cost |
| Trend corpus | 143 filings · 43 carrier groups · 8 coverages · 779 coverage blocks carrying a selection |
Honest limits. Only the top ten writers per state are published, so roughly a third of approved filings find a loss ratio and the long tail is invisible. Selected trends appear in about a fifth of filings and development factors in a seventh — a disclosure ceiling no tooling lifts. California is the deep panel because its channels permit automated retrieval; SERFF states are hand-retrieved, since the NAIC User Agreement bars automation.
Full vendor-by-vendor comparison: docs/COMPETITIVE_LANDSCAPE.md in the repository.
One carrier at three widening scopes. Alone tells you whether you improved; against a peer group you choose tells you whether you improved faster than your competition; against every writer tells you whether either was really you or just the cycle.
The regulator's footprint
Both figures below are state-published for every approved filing — no reading, no sampling. The share trimmed below the ask is the regulator's visible hand, and a leading read on how much requested rate is pending rather than allowed.
Disclaimer — please read before relying on anything on this page. This is a research/educational dashboard built for the CAS 2026 Ratemaking paper.
- No warranty. All data and calculations are provided "as is," without warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Every figure carries an as-of date and reflects public data that lags real experience.
- Not actuarial advice. Nothing here is an actuarial work product, opinion, or rate indication, and it is not a substitute for the professional judgment of a qualified actuary working under the applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs). Several Werner & Modlin steps are deliberately not implemented.
- Not legal advice.
- Antitrust / information-sharing caution. This tool aggregates only rate figures that carriers have already filed or published publicly; it is a transparency aid, not a mechanism for competitor coordination or price signaling, and must be used consistently with antitrust and unfair-trade-practices law.
- Data-source terms respected. Public sources (CA CDI public notices, NAIC reports, SEC EDGAR, FRED, CAS Schedule P) are used per their public terms; SERFF Filing Access is never scraped; no personal or confidential data is stored.
- Your responsibility. Although this tool was built with care to respect all applicable legalities, it is the user's sole responsibility to ensure that any use complies with all applicable state, federal, and other laws and regulations, including insurance rating and filing laws.
- Open source under MPL-2.0 for full auditability and reproducibility.
"Take these filings and pull out anything on X." Two variables are shown because two have been run: deductible relativities, and the selected loss trend behind a rate indication. The recipe is the same for any rating variable a filing prints — what is still hand-written per variable is the instruction set, not the machinery.
Disclaimer — please read before relying on anything on this page. This is a research/educational dashboard built for the CAS 2026 Ratemaking paper.
- No warranty. All data and calculations are provided "as is," without warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Every figure carries an as-of date and reflects public data that lags real experience.
- Not actuarial advice. Nothing here is an actuarial work product, opinion, or rate indication, and it is not a substitute for the professional judgment of a qualified actuary working under the applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs). Several Werner & Modlin steps are deliberately not implemented.
- Not legal advice.
- Antitrust / information-sharing caution. This tool aggregates only rate figures that carriers have already filed or published publicly; it is a transparency aid, not a mechanism for competitor coordination or price signaling, and must be used consistently with antitrust and unfair-trade-practices law.
- Data-source terms respected. Public sources (CA CDI public notices, NAIC reports, SEC EDGAR, FRED, CAS Schedule P) are used per their public terms; SERFF Filing Access is never scraped; no personal or confidential data is stored.
- Your responsibility. Although this tool was built with care to respect all applicable legalities, it is the user's sole responsibility to ensure that any use complies with all applicable state, federal, and other laws and regulations, including insurance rating and filing laws.
- Open source under MPL-2.0 for full auditability and reproducibility.
Methodology & Sources
Provenance is the moat: every number is traceable to a free public source with an as-of date. This page is generated from the data actually loaded.
Public data inventory
| Source | Grain | Fields | Vintage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAIC Auto Insurance Database Report | State × coverage (all-carrier aggregate) | earned premium, earned exposure, incurred losses, incurred claim count | Annual, ~2–3y lag | in use |
| FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) | National monthly/weekly driver series | repair/parts/used-car/medical CPI; vehicle-miles-traveled; gas price | Monthly/weekly, current | in use |
| SEC EDGAR (10-K/10-Q/XBRL) | Per public carrier | personal-auto segment premium/losses/loss ratio; MD&A freq/sev commentary | Quarterly (Progressive monthly) | in use |
| [SERFF rate filings (user-uploaded)](manual download — this tool never scrapes SERFF) | Per filing (carrier × state × line) | indicated/selected rate change, selected trends, experience series | As filed | in use |
| [California / Texas / Massachusetts DOI experience reports](insurance.ca.gov ; tdi.texas.gov ; cardata.org) | Sub-state (county/territory/program) | earned premium, exposure, claims, incurred losses | Annual | available — not yet ingested |
Formulas
- Frequency = incurred claim count ÷ earned exposure
- Severity = incurred losses ÷ incurred claim count
- Pure premium = incurred losses ÷ earned exposure (= frequency × severity)
- Loss ratio = incurred losses ÷ earned premium
- Exponential trend = exp(slope of ln(y) regressed on year) − 1, over each trailing window (windows longer than history shown n/a)
- Driver projection = OLS of experience-metric annual %Δ on driver annual %Δ over overlapping years; projected off the latest driver YoY
Driver series (Layer 2)
- CPI: Used Cars & Trucks (
CUSR0000SETA02, severity) — FRED; fixture as of 2026-06-14, live whenFRED_API_KEYis set. - CPI: Motor Vehicle Maintenance & Repair (
CUSR0000SETD, severity) — FRED; fixture as of 2026-06-14, live whenFRED_API_KEYis set. - CPI: Motor Vehicle Parts & Equipment (
CUSR0000SETC, severity) — FRED; fixture as of 2026-06-14, live whenFRED_API_KEYis set. - CPI: Medical Care Services (
CUSR0000SAM2, severity) — FRED; fixture as of 2026-06-14, live whenFRED_API_KEYis set. - Vehicle Miles Traveled (12-mo total) (
TRFVOLUSM227NFWA, frequency) — FRED; fixture as of 2026-06-14, live whenFRED_API_KEYis set. - US Regular Gas Price (
GASREGW, frequency) — FRED; fixture as of 2026-06-14, live whenFRED_API_KEYis set.
Werner & Modlin grounding (Basic Ratemaking, CAS 5th ed.)
| Calculation | Werner & Modlin grounding |
|---|---|
| Loss trend — frequency, severity, pure premium; exponential fit exp(slope)−1; freq×sev→pp identity | Ch. 6 (Losses & LAE — trend). Engine reproduces the W&M Appendix A Personal Auto exhibit (p352 / Table 6.14) within ±0.15pp in the test suite. |
| Multi-window trailing trend selection | Ch. 6 — trend selected across experience windows. |
| Realized ultimate loss ratio = incurred losses ÷ earned premium at development lag 10 (Schedule P) | Ch. 6 (loss development) — implemented as a fixed 10-year proxy for ultimate, NOT a chain-ladder projection. |
| Market loss-ratio index (median / p25 / p75 of realized ultimate LR) | Ch. 8 loss-ratio method framing; realized losses developed per Ch. 6. |
| Rate-need gap = indicated − approved (filed) rate change | Ch. 8 (overall rate-level indication) — indicated vs. adopted rate change. |
| Driver overlay (FRED) and SEC quarterly nowcast | Extensions beyond W&M — external economic drivers and a public-carrier nowcast; W&M selects trend judgmentally. |
Werner & Modlin methods deliberately NOT implemented
- On-leveling / current rate level / parallelogram method (Ch. 5) — historical premium is not brought to current rate level; loss-ratio reads are off-level.
- Chain-ladder loss-development triangle (Ch. 6) — ultimate is proxied by the development-lag-10 diagonal; no link ratios or tail factor.
- Credibility weighting (Ch. 12) — trends and indications are shown on their own data; no complement of credibility is blended.
- Expense-derived permissible loss ratio (Ch. 7–8) — the diagnostic's PERMISSIBLE_LR (0.70) and ASSUMED_CURRENT_LR (0.78) are illustrative placeholders, not a filed expense analysis.
Limitations (read these)
- NAIC ADB is annual and lags ~2–3 years; the nowcast layer flags movement since the latest edition but cannot replace current experience.
- ADB losses are incurred (not paid) and the claim count is incurred (not closed) — labelled as such; reserve development is not removed.
- NAIC reuses one rolling URL per edition; history is stitched from archived editions, and a year present in two editions is taken from the most recent edition (the restatement delta is logged).
- The driver projection is a single-predictor fit over a short annual overlap — an illustrative directional read with r and n shown, NOT a credibility-weighted trend.
- SEC figures are largely company-wide, not coverage-level freq/sev; treated as a directional nowcast only.
- Clean per-carrier quarterly frequency/severity is not publicly disclosed — this tool does not claim to provide it. ISO Fast Track / Verisk would be the paid source.
Disclaimer — please read before relying on anything on this page. This is a research/educational dashboard built for the CAS 2026 Ratemaking paper.
- No warranty. All data and calculations are provided "as is," without warranty of accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Every figure carries an as-of date and reflects public data that lags real experience.
- Not actuarial advice. Nothing here is an actuarial work product, opinion, or rate indication, and it is not a substitute for the professional judgment of a qualified actuary working under the applicable Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs). Several Werner & Modlin steps are deliberately not implemented.
- Not legal advice.
- Antitrust / information-sharing caution. This tool aggregates only rate figures that carriers have already filed or published publicly; it is a transparency aid, not a mechanism for competitor coordination or price signaling, and must be used consistently with antitrust and unfair-trade-practices law.
- Data-source terms respected. Public sources (CA CDI public notices, NAIC reports, SEC EDGAR, FRED, CAS Schedule P) are used per their public terms; SERFF Filing Access is never scraped; no personal or confidential data is stored.
- Your responsibility. Although this tool was built with care to respect all applicable legalities, it is the user's sole responsibility to ensure that any use complies with all applicable state, federal, and other laws and regulations, including insurance rating and filing laws.
- Open source under MPL-2.0 for full auditability and reproducibility.